EURUSD continues to trade in confined spaces. Last week’s price action found sellers at the trend line that extends from the current 2016 high at 1.1615 with bids forming at the key 1.1200 handle.
As has been the case for most of 2016, I’m staying clear of the pair due to the lack of direction and choppy conditions.
However, for those intent on trading the single currency, a close below 1.1200 would open the door for a retest of the August low near 1.1060 while a close above trend line resistance would expose recent highs at 1.1355.
As for the (very) long-term picture, I see no reason to change my outlook from one year ago. In it, I laid the groundwork for why I believe the Euro is setting the stage for a move lower toward sixteen-year lows.
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So far the channel support that gave way last October has held as new resistance on a daily closing basis, which means that outlook is still very much alive.
But until the range low at 1.0460 gives way we’re likely to see more of the same from the pair.
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GBPUSD is at a crossroads. After breaking above wedge resistance on September 1st, the pair lost ground during the second half of last week and is trading just 70 pips above critical support.
The 1.3180/3200 area is defined by former wedge resistance that extends from the post-Brexit high at 1.3532 and channel support from the August low.
At the end of the day, I’m neither bullish nor bearish the GBPUSD. While buyers have managed to gain some ground recently, the downtrend remains intact along with the sideways price action that has persisted since the beginning of July.
After forming a bearish pin/engulfing bar during Thursday’s session, AUDUSD finished the week with its biggest single-session loss since the Brexit-inspired selloff on June 24th.
I mentioned this formation shortly after it was confirmed and also pointed out the daily close below the critical 0.7650 handle. I took advantage of the subsequent retest of the level as new resistance by entering short at 0.7648.
By the time the dust settled on Friday, the pair had closed below yet another key level at 0.7580. This area should, therefore, act as resistance if tested in the coming sessions.
As advantageous as Friday’s move was, I still believe that the “real” opportunity here has yet to materialize. A close below ascending channel support near 0.7420 would open the floodgates and expose the current 2016 low at 0.6827.
But until this level falls, we’ll need to keep a big question mark next to the future direction of the pair, especially with the continued uncertainty surrounding the US dollar.
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A lot of folks are bullish the NZDUSD, and I get it, the pair has been rallying (technically speaking) for more than a year now. However, there’s a reason why I haven’t bought the kiwi during this time.
A few reasons, in fact.
First, it took 18 weeks for the pair to slide more than 1,500 pips between April and August of last year. Compare that to the 54 weeks it’s needed to climb 1,300 pips between August of last year and the previous week’s high, and we have a yellow warning flag.
Second, the sixteen-year ascending channel (see monthly chart below) shows us that the pair still has some work to do before we should begin calling a major bottom.
After seeing the monthly chart above it becomes apparent why NZDUSD has struggled in the 0.7320 area of late. This level spans several 2005 highs as well as a series of monthly highs from the second half of 2009 to 2010.
It’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2009 low to the 2011 high.
For these reasons, I’m only interested in selling opportunities going forward. But to have confidence in any short setup I first need to see a daily close below the 0.7200 area. A breakdown there would expose the July lows near 0.6970.
Part of being a good trader is staying as flexible as you are vigilant. In other words, don’t get too attached to a particular trade idea or bias.
GBPCAD is an excellent example of this. Just last week the pair broke below ascending channel support on a 4-hour closing basis thus hinting at a move lower.
However, instead of following through to the downside, the pound cross found its footing in the last 24 hours of trade and is now looking quite bullish as we start a new week.
But while a close above the 1.7545 handle would expose higher ground, the better momentum play in my opinion is a retest of the 1.8110 area. This level is the neckline of the massive head and shoulders pattern that I pointed out on June 1st.
Due to the volatility during the June 24th Brexit, GBPCAD never actually retested the neckline as new resistance. We’ll have to see how things play out from here, but a successful retest of 1.8110 could be the start of a much larger decline toward the multi-year lows at 1.5300.
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